Tanimu Yakubu, DG of Nigeria’s Budget Office, explains why viral critiques of Tinubunomics are based on “arithmetic illusions,” stressing the need to distinguish revenue, borrowing, and federation receipts from federal budget realities.

Tinubunomics Explained: Debunking Nigeria’s Arithmetic of Illusion

Nigeria’s economic debate has been flooded with dramatic headline numbers—₦150 trillion, ₦170 trillion, ₦180 trillion—often presented as evidence of mismanagement. But according to Tanimu Yakubu, Director‑General of the Budget Office of the Federation, these figures are built on arithmetic illusions, not fiscal reality.

The Illusion of Big Numbers

Critics frequently lump together tax collections, oil receipts, customs revenues, borrowing, and “subsidy savings” to create inflated totals. Borrowing is treated as income, federation‑wide collections are presented as federal cash, and subsidy reforms are portrayed as instant windfalls. The result: large numbers that mislead rather than inform.

What the Numbers Really Mean

– Revenue ≠ Cash: Not all collections are available for federal spending.

– Borrowing ≠ Income: Loans create obligations, not free money.

– Federation Receipts ≠ Federal Budget: Revenues are shared and earmarked, not fully retained by the Federal Government.

– Subsidy Reform ≠ Vault of Cash: It closes fiscal leaks gradually, not overnight.

Debt and Exchange Rate Realities

Much of Nigeria’s rising debt stock reflects exchange‑rate revaluation of existing obligations, not fresh borrowing. Treating this accounting adjustment as new debt is a category error.

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The Logic of Tinubunomics

Tinubunomics is not about instant abundance. It is a macro‑fiscal reset designed to restore credibility, strengthen revenue administration, and re‑price the public balance sheet while protecting vulnerable citizens.

Accountability Through Audit Logic

True accountability requires examining retained federal revenue, separating financing from income, tracking expenditure across debt service, personnel, capital, and transfers, and then measuring outputs—roads, power, rail, schools, and clinics. Anything else is theatre.